Southern Cone gas and power 2021 outlook to 2050

The Southern Cone gas and power markets are experiencing one of the driest hydrology seasons in recent history. Thermal power generation and LNG imports will reach record levels in Brazil. Argentina is also tight of gas supply, and CAMMESA will burn more diesel than in 2020. At the same time, Chile is also dry and power players are assessing the supply risk of Argentina’s firm exports for next summer. In the long term, we expect strong growth in gas production in Brazil, underpinned by pre-salt assets awaiting final investment decision in tandem with major industrial projects. Argentina will continue growing production if future governments learn from the mistakes of the gas price control episode in 2020. Bolivia’s production is rapidly declining, but 2021 and 2022 will be critical years for exploration.