Southern Cone gas and power short-term outlook: April 2022

Despite Brazilian hydrology decelerated in April, the system operators managed to keep the reservoirs recovery process. As a result, power spot prices (PLD) remained at the regulatory price floor. From the natural gas perspective, this has relieved demand, reducing the need for LNG. On the other hand, Chilean hydro prospects keep unsatisfactory for the following months. Reservoirs reached 17% in April, below the 2021 level, while spot prices climbed to US$139/MWh in the Central region, reflecting the costs of extra thermal dispatch. Furthermore, the country will not count on gas flows from Argentina during winter, given it will prioritise its internal demand. Bolivia and Argentina have finally reached to an agreement for winter volumes. Low gas demand from the Brazilian power sector will enable Bolivia to send additional gas to Argentina, which will be attractive to Argentina, lower than global LNG prices, and Bolivia, more than triple what is sold to Brazil.