Southern Cone gas and power: what to watch in 2023 Report

Insight 13 December 2022

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Report summary

Throughout 2022, the Southern Cone gas and power markets have seen many changes in their dynamics. New players began operating in Brazil’s gas market, gas production remained resilient in Argentina and production decline rates accelerated in Bolivia. The power market in Chile saw the first effects of a possible hurried energy transition, while the market rebalanced in Brazil after a severe drought. Although some of these events clarify the market for the next year, others intensify future uncertainties. This report explores the main events that will shape the markets in the coming year, such as: • How infrastructure development progress will define the gas market next year in Argentina • How accelerated declining rate will challenge Bolivia to repeat record income in 2023 • How the new government will impact reforms in gas and power markets in Brazil • How recent bankrupt renewable projects will affect changes in the regulatory framework in Chile

Argentina
- Infrastructure development progress will define the gas market next year
- With grid access constraints resolved in the short term, government attention will shift to hydro concessions
Bolivia
- The accelerated declining rate poses a challenge for Bolivia to repeat record income in 2023
Brazil
- Will the opening of the gas market lose momentum with the newly elected president?
- With the new administration, the power sector reform agenda will continue, although some measures of the past administration will be reviewed
- Electoral activity will postpone reform discussions and delay Eletrobras privatisation
Chile
- Argentinian imports: uncertainties in winter but better price conditions in summer
- The increasing number of bankrupt renewable projects may result in changes in the regulated auction framework