Insight
Thailand's scramble for LNG: a reality check on gas market fundamentals
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Thailand’s LNG demand has surged by almost 50% in first-half 2022 compared to the same period last year. Our full-year LNG demand forecast for Thailand is around 8 Mt and PTT only imports about 5.2 Mt of LNG supply from four long-term contracts. Hence, incremental LNG demand must be met with a significant number of spot cargo purchases, unfortunately dealt at record-high prices, from an extremely tight global LNG market.
Table of contents
- Executive Summary
-
What’s driving LNG demand: Double whammy of demand and supply fundamentals
- Significant reliance on gas generation raised systemic risk in Thailand’s power sector
- Domestic gas production’s steady decline – No upside, only downside risk
- Dim E&P prospects in Myanmar add to Thailand’s long-term gas supply security concerns
- Market fundamentals leave Thailand with little choice but to import more LNG
- Expect high power prices as pricy spot LNG imports lift gas pool prices
- Looking forward
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Electricity seasonality
- Power generation seasonality
- Gas pool price trends
- Monthly LNG demand (Mt)
- Power generation mix forecast
- Major gas producing fields
What's included
This report contains:
