Insight
What could sustain LNG prices “stronger for longer”?
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Our current outlook is for the LNG market to remain relatively tight through to 2025 before a new wave of LNG supply results in yet another structural shift, bringing global gas and LNG prices further down through 2030. Additional LNG FIDs, weak demand or a return of Russian pipeline supply to Europe present downside risks to this price view. But risks that could drive the market into a "stronger for longer" price outlook abound too.
Table of contents
- Executive Summary
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Introduction: structural shift on the horizon and the drivers that could change that
- WM SPO: LNG growth by year-on-year
- WM SPO: Europe gas demand vs Asia LNG demand
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Lower LNG supply growth
- Global LNG supply: WM SPO vs LNG delays scenario
- Focus on Europe balance change - LNG Delays (2030)
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No Russian gas/LNG to the EU
- Russia pipe flows to Europe: WM SPO versus Russia EU Ban
- Focus on Europe balance change - Russia EU Ban (2030)
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Higher European gas demand
- Increase in Europe Demand: WM SPO vs Europe High Demand
- Focus on Europe balance change - Europe High Demand
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Higher Asian LNG demand
- Northeast Asia
- China
- South Asia
- Southeast Asia
- Increase in Asia LNG Demand: WM SPO vs Asia High Demand
- Focus on Europe balance change - Asia High Demand
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Conclusion
- Scenarios: Impact vs Probability
- Scenario price sensitivities
Tables and charts
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What's included
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