Insight
Global LNG supply tracker Q1 2018: no supply growth until next winter
Report summary
New LNG projects will propel global LNG output to 325 Mt (+9%) in 2018. However, with the exception of Cameroon GoFLNG expected to begin in Q2 2018, start-ups at most new facilities are drifting to late Q3-Q4 2018. This means there will be limited supply growth until the end of 2018. And further delays could once again tighten the market next winter. We have pushed back Ichthys to Q3 2018 due to major contractual disputes and Prelude to Q4 2018 due to carry over work and commissioning risks. The second train at Yamal is still expected in early Q4 2018, however could come earlier if NOVATEK manages to stick to its more aggressive schedule. We expect LNG capacity growth to accelerate again in 2019. A revision to our view now holds that US LNG will be fully utilised in 2019. However, this remains contingent upon Russia's strategy in Europe.
Table of contents
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Highlights
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Downside risks to our view
- Existing producers
- New projects
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Upside risks to our view
- Existing projects
- New projects
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Asia-Pacific LNG supply
- Australia
- Brunei
- Indonesia
- Malaysia
- PNG
- Russia East
- Peru
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Key changes to Middle East and North Africa (MENA) supply
- Oman
- Qatar
- UAE
- Yemen
- Egypt
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Key changes to Atlantic supply
- Russia West
- Nigeria
- Algeria
- Cameroon
- Equatorial Guinea
- Angola
- Trinidad
- US
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Downside risks to our view
Tables and charts
This report includes 14 images and tables including:
- Global LNG supply (mmtpa annualised)
- Global LNG supply tracker Q1 2018: no supply growth until next winter: Image 1
- Global LNG supply tracker Q1 2018: no supply growth until next winter: Image 2
- Global LNG supply tracker Q1 2018: no supply growth until next winter: Image 3
- Global LNG supply and y-o-y changes
- Recent Project start-ups
- Global LNG supply tracker Q1 2018: no supply growth until next winter: Image 5
- Global LNG supply tracker Q1 2018: no supply growth until next winter: Table 3
- Global LNG supply tracker Q1 2018: no supply growth until next winter: Image 6
- Global LNG supply tracker Q1 2018: no supply growth until next winter: Image 7
- Global LNG supply tracker Q1 2018: no supply growth until next winter: Image 8
- Global LNG supply tracker Q1 2018: no supply growth until next winter: Image 9
- Global LNG supply tracker Q1 2018: no supply growth until next winter: Image 10
- Global LNG supply tracker Q1 2018: no supply growth until next winter: Image 11
What's included
This report contains:
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