Commodity Market Report
LNG Short-Term Outlook - May 2021
Report summary
Northeast Asian growth carries risk: In each of the three largest LNG importing countries (China, Japan, Korea) we expect sizeable growth (or at least a rebound) in 2021 imports. However, each of these carries country-specific risks. In Japan, total power demand continues to decline, putting pressure on gas as the marginal fuel source. Korea's growth is largely through government-enforced coal-to-gas switching and one-time inventory restocking. Only China’s LNG growth is supported by strong fundamental gas demand. But even there, any economic slowdown or resurgence of COVID restrictions could reverse this trend as supply from both domestic production and Russian pipeline imports continue to grow. Indian import growth to stall: We are not expecting a repeat of last year’s double-digit demand growth rate, despite the strong start to the year. With many states forced to impose local lockdowns, we expect material reductions in city gas and industrial demand for LNG...
Table of contents
- Lower-than-seasonal inventory, higher coal and carbon prices, allied with continued strong APAC LNG demand combines to keeps prompt fundamentals tight
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- Updated: 20 May 2021
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