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China economic focus June 2025: is the 5% growth target within reach?
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
China's economy performed robustly in the first five months of 2025, driven by fiscal stimulus programs that boosted consumption and unexpected strength in exports. Observers questioned China’s macro data due to the mismatched power consumption data. However, we believe the structural shifts away from the power-intensive sectors explain the discrepancy. Growth momentum is expected to decelerate in the second half of 2025 due to reduced fiscal support, higher base effects, and emerging tariff impacts, requiring additional policy measures to meet the 5% GDP target.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
- Fiscal stimulus fuels the domestic economy
- Change in growth drivers creates a power demand mismatch
- How long can China’s strong performance last?
- Appendix
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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China’s economic indicators, 2024 vs Jan-May 2025China’s power consumption growth by sector, Jan-Apr 2025Exports of the six countries/regions impacted the most by the full US reciprocal tariff
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Housing sales in 20 major citiesWood Mackenzie's proprietary China dataManufacturing PMIIndustrial production and retail salesTradeInflationPropertyInvestmentMoney supply (M2)
- 1 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
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