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Economic focus: Will China's housing revival boost GDP growth?

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31 May 2016

Economic focus: Will China's housing revival boost GDP growth?

Report summary

Looser credit and supportive demand measures are breathing life into China's property market once more. In the first four months of 2016, housing sales rose by 39%. Similarly, residential construction starts expanded 18% year-on-year in the same period. Can the nascent recovery in China's property market be sustained in the longer run? More importantly, how does the recent uptick in the property market change our China construction and GDP outlooks? In this Insight we present our outlook on China's total construction and explain why it has already peaked.  We also highlight the key reasons for maintaining our China GDP forecast of 6.4% this year and 6.2% in 2017 despite the recent revival in the property market. Other recent research: Ultra-loose monetary policy: friend or foe? Brexit: risks for the UK economy and energy sector

Table of contents

  • Policy does the trick, for now
  • A tale of two Chinas
  • Residential construction will still decline despite upgrade
  • China construction has peaked
  • China GDP forecast unchanged as broader downside risks remain
  • Economic indicators

Tables and charts

This report includes 22 images and tables including:

  • Recovery in China's property market
  • But inventory levels remain high in non-tier 1 markets
  • Construction outlook
  • Home-buying population
  • Breakdown of China's total construction
  • China's GDP outlook
  • USA Purchasing Managers' Indices
  • Eurozone Purchasing Managers' Indices
  • Japan Purchasing Managers' Indices
  • China Purchasing Managers' Indices
  • Industrial production
  • Industrial production
  • Consumer Sentiment Index (3-month moving avg.)
  • Consumer Sentiment Index (3-month moving avg.)
  • 10-year government bond yields (%)
  • 10-year government bond yields (%)
  • Consumer Price Index (annual % change)
  • Consumer Price Index (annual % change)
  • Exchange Rate Indices vs US$ (Jan 2012 = 100)
  • Exchange Rate Indices vs US$ (Jan 2012 = 100)
  • Oil and gas prices
  • Copper and freight prices

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Economic focus: Will China's housing revival boost GDP growth?

    PDF 748.71 KB

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