Insight
Economic focus: Will China's housing revival boost GDP growth?
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Looser credit and supportive demand measures are breathing life into China's property market once more. In the first four months of 2016, housing sales rose by 39%. Similarly, residential construction starts expanded 18% year-on-year in the same period. Can the nascent recovery in China's property market be sustained in the longer run? More importantly, how does the recent uptick in the property market change our China construction and GDP outlooks? In this Insight we present our outlook on China's total construction and explain why it has already peaked. We also highlight the key reasons for maintaining our China GDP forecast of 6.4% this year and 6.2% in 2017 despite the recent revival in the property market. Other recent research: Ultra-loose monetary policy: friend or foe? Brexit: risks for the UK economy and energy sector
Table of contents
- Policy does the trick, for now
- A tale of two Chinas
- Residential construction will still decline despite upgrade
- China construction has peaked
- China GDP forecast unchanged as broader downside risks remain
- Economic indicators
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Recovery in China's property market
- But inventory levels remain high in non-tier 1 markets
- Construction outlook
- Home-buying population
- Breakdown of China's total construction
- China's GDP outlook
- USA Purchasing Managers' Indices
- Eurozone Purchasing Managers' Indices
- Japan Purchasing Managers' Indices
- China Purchasing Managers' Indices
- Industrial production
- Industrial production
- 10 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
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