Commodity Market Report

Europe energy markets long-term outlook H1 2015

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06 August 2015

Europe energy markets long-term outlook H1 2015

Report summary

Demand for fossil fuels in Europe is expected to reduce in the long term as climate-energy policy continues to shape the development of energy markets and the role of renewable technologies expands, particularly in the power sector. However, we maintain a view that EU policy objectives to 2030 remain ambitious and beyond reach. Our latest view of oil, gas, coal and carbon prices are included here, along with an update on EU energy policy.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Economic outlook
    • Dimension 1: Energy security, solidarity and trust
      • Main projects and initiatives:
      • Security of supply
      • State aid and security of electricity supply
    • Dimension 2. A fully integrated internal energy market
      • Main projects and initiatives:
      • Internal market
      • Competition
      • Anti-trust enforcement
    • Dimension 3. Decarbonising the economy
      • Main projects and initiatives:
    • Dimension 4. Energy efficiency
      • Main projects and initiatives:
      • Energy efficiency targets
    • Dimension 5. Research, innovation and competitiveness
      • Main projects and initiatives
    • EU emissions trading
      • Carbon market background
      • Energy policy development and EU ETS
        • 2030 targets confirmed
        • A central role for emissions trading
      • Market scope, balance and the influence of the MSR
    • Industrial & Non Energy Use
    • Oil prices
    • Gas prices
      • Short-term outlook – falling prices and market weaknes
      • Long-term outlook – Asian demand growth slows and less new supply is required
      • Changes from the previous coal price outlook
    • Carbon price
      • Emissions (EUA) price forecast

Tables and charts

This report includes 28 images and tables including:

  • Economic outlook: Image 1
  • Policy and regulation: Image 1
  • Energy demand by sector
  • Energy demand by supply
  • Energy intensity by sub region
  • Energy demand by sub region
  • Industrial fuel mix
  • Industrial demand by sub region
  • Transport fuel mix
  • Transport demand by sub region
  • RCA fuel mix
  • RCA energy demand by sub region
  • Oil price forecast
  • Gas price forecast
  • Economics* of gas vs coal** in the power sector
  • Russian contract prices, Gazprom price and NBP
  • Real rouble exchange rate forecast vs oil price
  • Gazprom delivered cost curve into Europe - 2025
  • Policy and regulation: Table 1
  • Policy and regulation: Table 2
  • European (EU) renewable electricity targets and growth
  • Historical carbon (EUA) prices in ETS trading phases
  • ETS allowance supply - post-market reserve
  • Cumulative allowance balance - before and after the market reserve
  • Coal price forecast – delivered (CFR) ARA prices (6,000 kcal/kg NAR)
  • Carbon (EUA) price forecast
  • Carbon price and cost of fuel switching in the power sector
  • Power sector carbon emissions with and without emissions costs

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Europe Energy H1 2015.xls

    XLS 3.59 MB

  • Document

    Europe Gas Demand H1 2015.xls

    XLS 879.00 KB

  • Document

    Europe energy markets long-term outlook H1 2015

    PDF 577.25 KB

  • Document

    Europe energy markets long-term outlook H1 2015

    ZIP 1.13 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 79.00 KB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 66.27 KB

  • Document

    Policy and regulation

    PDF 229.78 KB

  • Document


    PDF 149.02 KB

  • Document


    PDF 206.83 KB