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Q2 2015 Macroeconomics update: Effects of oil price shock, China slowdown and QE unwind on global GDP

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It has been a tumultuous nine months for the global economy. Key economies have experienced contraction - both developed and developing. China's economy has slipped to its lowest growth in 25 years. And monetary policy has started to diverge, significantly. While commodity prices crashed, the US dollar hit a nine year high. How do we make sense of the events over the past nine months and assess the impact on the global economy?

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    Q2 2015 Macroeconomics update: Effects of oil price shock, China slowdown and QE unwind on global GDP

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Table of contents

  • Making sense of a tumultuous nine months
  • QE, commodity prices and exchange rates are inter-connected
  • Crude oil price shock: impact on the real economy?
  • Trade balance implications are significant
  • But only part of the benefit is reaching the consumer...
  • European consumers enjoy less pump savings vs USA peers
  • Resource states have been a key engine of US GDP growth. What now?
  • Upstream oil and gas capex and employment is falling
  • China: on a path of managed economic slowdown
  • Policy a critical driver of growth: risk around scale and scope of measures
  • China's drivers of growth are changing over the longer-term
  • The pace of global growth will be determined by USA and China
  • Risks to the outlook

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Images

  • Q2 2015 Macroeconomics update: Effects of oil price shock, China slowdown and QE unwind on global GDP: Image 1
  • Q2 2015 Macroeconomics update: Effects of oil price shock, China slowdown and QE unwind on global GDP: Image 2
  • Q2 2015 Macroeconomics update: Effects of oil price shock, China slowdown and QE unwind on global GDP: Image 3
  • Q2 2015 Macroeconomics update: Effects of oil price shock, China slowdown and QE unwind on global GDP: Image 4
  • Q2 2015 Macroeconomics update: Effects of oil price shock, China slowdown and QE unwind on global GDP: Image 5
  • Q2 2015 Macroeconomics update: Effects of oil price shock, China slowdown and QE unwind on global GDP: Image 6
  • Q2 2015 Macroeconomics update: Effects of oil price shock, China slowdown and QE unwind on global GDP: Image 7
  • Q2 2015 Macroeconomics update: Effects of oil price shock, China slowdown and QE unwind on global GDP: Image 8
  • Q2 2015 Macroeconomics update: Effects of oil price shock, China slowdown and QE unwind on global GDP: Image 9
  • Q2 2015 Macroeconomics update: Effects of oil price shock, China slowdown and QE unwind on global GDP: Image 10
  • Q2 2015 Macroeconomics update: Effects of oil price shock, China slowdown and QE unwind on global GDP: Image 11
  • Q2 2015 Macroeconomics update: Effects of oil price shock, China slowdown and QE unwind on global GDP: Image 12
  • Q2 2015 Macroeconomics update: Effects of oil price shock, China slowdown and QE unwind on global GDP: Image 13

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