Q3 2016 China construction outlook: More room for growth?

China's construction sector is paramount in metals demand, accounting for 20% of global steel demand, 14% of global aluminum demand, and 11% of global copper demand. It also contributes more than 30% of China’s GDP. China's building completions peaked in 2014. We expect the sector to face a structural decline longer term, but the housing recovery led by state-owned-enterprise investment since early 2016 has distorted the market. Is there more room for growth in the short term? The story is not complete without considering the non-residential sector. Its share of total Chinese construction has grown from 26% in 2000 to nearly 50% in 2015. How will China's economic transition towards a service-based economy impact non-residential construction? Which will be the fastest-growing sectors within non-residential construction? This insight assesses the key drivers of China's residential and non-residential construction, and presents our outlook to 2035.