Q3 2016 China construction outlook: More room for growth?

China's construction sector is paramount in metals demand accounting for 20% of global steel demand 14% of global aluminum demand and 11% of global copper demand. It also contributes more than 30% of China s GDP. China's building completions peaked in 2014. We expect the sector to face a structural decline longer term but the housing recovery led by state owned enterprise investment since early 2016 has distorted the market. Is there more room for growth in the short term? The story is not complete without considering the non residential sector. Its share of total Chinese construction has grown from 26% in 2000 to nearly 50% in 2015. How will China's economic transition towards a service based economy impact non residential construction? Which will be the fastest growing sectors within non residential construction? This insight assesses the key drivers of China's residential and non residential construction and presents our outlook to 2035.