Insight
The growing threat of recession: implications for commodity demand
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The global economy is expanding at a healthy pace, but risks are mounting. Trade conflict continues to escalate, while the strains of higher interest rates are emerging. As we move into the late stages of the economic cycle, the likelihood of recession increases. What will the next downturn look like, and what are the implications for commodities? We consider a downside scenario where the global economy slows sharply within the next three years.
Table of contents
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Executive summary
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Where are we in the economic cycle?
- GDP growth – Wood Mackenzie base case
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Recession – when and how?
- Trade wars
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Emerging market crisis
- Emerging markets as share of global total
- Oil price shock
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Asset price bubble
- Equity indices (Jan 2005 = 100)
- Downside scenario
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Commodity implications of recession
- Oil
- Steel
- Copper
- Coal
- Conclusion
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Where are we in the economic cycle?
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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The growing threat of recession: implications for commodity demand: Image 1Unemployment ratesAn inverted yield curve is a strong indicator of recession in the US
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GDP growth under downside scenarioGlobal oil demand and GDPGlobal gasoline and diesel demandChina reaction is critical for steelGlobal coal demandChange in seaborne coal demand due to recessionThe growing threat of recession: implications for commodity demand: Image 4The growing threat of recession: implications for commodity demand: Image 5
What's included
This report contains:
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