Insight
A parallel metals universe of "What If"... if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
A prolonged disruption to Gulf energy flows would trigger a severe global supply shock at a time when relief from new LNG capacity remains years away. Our latest report explores a critical "What If" scenario: An Extended Disruption locking the Strait of Hormuz through the end of 2026. In this environment, the global economy faces significant stress, with oil prices potentially spiking toward US$200/bbl and Western economies at risk of recession. Beneath the macro disruption, the metals complex is being reshaped by cost pressure and geopolitical realignment.
Table of contents
- A parallel metals universe of "What If"
- Energy shock and macro contraction
- A Geopolitical divergence: the rise of tech-sovereignty
- Copper mining turns gold
- The metallurgical lifeboat and the AI Minsky moment
- Breaking the molecules
- Conclusion
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
-
Global IP and Base Case Metals DemandAI data centre internal base case copper demand: noise vs. reality
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Insight
Global oil supply short-term update - May 2026
Supply outages continue as the Strait of Hormuz remains severely restricted. UAE to ramp-up post-conflict following its OPEC exit.
$1,350
Insight
Global oil supply short-term update - June 2026
Production recovery for the key Middle East producers has been deferred as the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted
$1,350
Insight
US and Iran sign MoU to extend ceasefire by 60 days
How quickly can Qatar resume LNG production?
$1,050
