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Alumina and aluminium prices must rise to prevent crunch

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Report summary

Wood Mackenzie routinely reassesses the long run incentive price, which is the minimum price needed to make investment in new capacity viable based on a rate of return of 15%. The assessment takes into account changes in operating and capital costs, and the extent to which these have become embedded. We now estimate that the incentive price for alumina is US$370/t, while that of aluminium is $2380/t.

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    Alumina and aluminium prices must rise to prevent crunch

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Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 8 images and tables including:

Images

  • Raw material, electricity, energy and alumina prices, 2000-2013, 2000=100
  • Raw material, electricity and aluminium prices, 2000-2013, 2000=100
  • Percentage of LME linked power tariffs in total costed supply
  • Weighted average refinery and smelter margins as percentage of price, 1984-2013
  • Historical and equilibrium alumina prices (2014 US$/t alumina)
  • Historical and equilibrium aluminium prices (2014 US$/t aluminium)

Tables

  • Refinery capital intensity outside of China, 1980-2019 (US$/t installed capacity)
  • Smelter capital intensity outside of China, 1980-2019 (US$/t installed capacity)

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