Insight
Bulk alloys under an accelerated energy transition
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Report summary
To limit global warming to 1.5⁰C compared to pre-industrial levels, in line with the 2015 Paris Agreement, the energy transition will need to accelerate. As metals will be among the key enablers of the energy transition, it follows that an accelerated energy transition pathway will have consequential impacts across metal markets, including bulk alloys. In this insight, we provide a comparative analysis of the bulk alloy markets under Wood Mackenzie’s accelerated energy transition scenario (AET-1.5) and the base case scenario (WM ETO).
Table of contents
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Key takeaways:
- Demand: Upside from renewables, Li-ion batteries and non-ferrous alloys while foundries and castings provide downside under AET-1.5
- Supply: Future supply gap widens for mine supply, but no new refining capacity is needed within the 2020s across bulk alloys, outside of existing project pipeline
- Capital requirements: New mining and refining capacity will need significant additional capital spending to meet AET-1.5 demand
- Prices: Ore incentive prices slightly up, while price of refined output will see more significant uplift on higher AET-1.5 production costs
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