The average capital intensity of iron ore projects is US$122/tonne of capacity, down from a peak of US$236/t of capacity for projects completed in 2014. The fall in capex since 2014 is because of lower energy and steel costs, favourable exchange rate movements, changed project scopes, and cancellation of capital-intensive projects. In 2016, only three projects were cancelled - compared to 18 in 2015 - as improved iron ore prices provide hope for project developers. But the outlook for project development is not promising. We expect prices to fall back to US$50/tonne over the next two years and the market to remain well supplied for the next decade. Faced with an oversupplied market, we expect a number of projects on our list are unlikely to be developed. We have identified a total of 65 projects with proposed capacity of 856Mtpa.
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Insight | Dec 2016
Capital intensity falling to pre-boom levels: iron ore project review 2016
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