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China cuts steel export tax: should we prepare for a flood of steel, or is the tide of exports receding?

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Report summary

The Tariff Department of China’s Ministry of Finance announced that the government would reduce or totally cancel export tariffs on steel products from January 1st 2018. Making Chinese steel exports cheaper is certainly bullish for export volumes. But we do not believe that the changes will result in a flood of steel exports leaving China.

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    China cuts steel export tax: should we prepare for a flood of steel, or is the tide of exports receding?

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Table of contents

  • Event
  • With tariffs removed, will exports rise?
  • Historically, Chinese export growth correlates closer to demand dynamics in export markets, rather than changes in tariffs
  • Chinese steel prices and margins are high reducing the motivation to export
  • One area the tariff changes could affect is semi-steel exports

Tables and charts

This report includes 4 images and tables including:

Images

  • HR coil prices are higher in China than in the EU...
  • ...and rebar prices are higher than the EU and the US - so why export to those markets?
  • Chinese export growth correlates closer to demand dynamics in export markets, rather than tariff changes
  • Tariff changes could result in higher exports of semis, although globally, these will remain comparatively small

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