Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium investment horizon outlook - Q3 2022
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The global aluminium strategic planning outlook provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2050. The medium-term outlook will be dominated by the steps taken by the aluminium industry to decarbonise and the energy transition. While existing smelters are busy trying to replace fossil fuels with renewables, new projects are still largely committed to high carbon power. There are plenty of projects in the pipeline but these may not be needed if the industry makes significant inroads into utilising scrap over the next 10 years. The bad news for demand is that we expect a nearby period of slow growth on the back of a deceleration in global economic activity. The good news is that the current energy crisis will likely lead to an acceleration in renewables investment, which will support aluminium offtake over the medium-term. Much of the incremental growth in demand will come from secondary aluminium.
Table of contents
- Aluminium medium-term outlook
- Alumina medium-term outlook
- Bauxite medium-term outlook
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Aluminium long-term outlook
- Which countries are likely to host new aluminium capacity?
- The price to pay for carbon emissions
- Base case incentive price
- The long-term aluminium price
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Alumina long-term outlook
- Main risks around our base case aluminium market outlook
- Scenario analysis
- Summary
- Changes to consumption forecasts since Q2 2022
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Forecasts by region
- China
- Asia ex-China
- Europe
- North America
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Smelter production and capacity
- Summary
-
Aluminium production changes since the last quarter
- Global smelter production and capacity 2021-2032
- Asia
- Asia ex-China
- China
- Europe
- Latin America and the Caribbean
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Refinery production and capacity
- Summary
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Alumina production changes since the last quarter
- Global refinery production and capacity 2021-2032
- Asia
- India
- Indonesia
- China
- Europe
- Latin America and the Caribbean
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Bauxite production
- Africa
- Asia (excl. China)
- China
- Latin America and the Caribbean
- Oceania
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Forecasting methodology
- Project Classification
- Supply disruptions
- Market-driven adjustment
- 4 more item(s)...
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Global aluminium balance and pricesPrimary aluminium demand and capacity, 2000-2032, MtpaStock days of consumption and price
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Global supply-demand balanceStock days and priceSmelter grade alumina balanceAlumina demand and capacity, 2010-2032, MtpaGlobal alumina balance and pricesGlobal seaborne bauxite balance and pricesSeaborne supply and demand, Mt (dry)Alumina incentive price, capital intensity and locationAlumina incentive price set at US$350/t (Constant 2022 $)
- 27 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
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