Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium investment horizon outlook - Q3 2022
Report summary
The global aluminium strategic planning outlook provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2050. The medium-term outlook will be dominated by the steps taken by the aluminium industry to decarbonise and the energy transition. While existing smelters are busy trying to replace fossil fuels with renewables, new projects are still largely committed to high carbon power. There are plenty of projects in the pipeline but these may not be needed if the industry makes significant inroads into utilising scrap over the next 10 years. The bad news for demand is that we expect a nearby period of slow growth on the back of a deceleration in global economic activity. The good news is that the current energy crisis will likely lead to an acceleration in renewables investment, which will support aluminium offtake over the medium-term. Much of the incremental growth in demand will come from secondary aluminium.
Table of contents
- Aluminium medium-term outlook
- Alumina medium-term outlook
- Bauxite medium-term outlook
-
Aluminium long-term outlook
- Which countries are likely to host new aluminium capacity?
- The price to pay for carbon emissions
- Base case incentive price
- The long-term aluminium price
-
Alumina long-term outlook
- Main risks around our base case aluminium market outlook
- Scenario analysis
- Summary
- Changes to consumption forecasts since Q2 2022
-
Forecasts by region
- China
- Asia ex-China
- Europe
- North America
-
Smelter production and capacity
- Summary
-
Aluminium production changes since the last quarter
- Global smelter production and capacity 2021-2032
- Asia
- Asia ex-China
- China
- Europe
- Latin America and the Caribbean
-
Refinery production and capacity
- Summary
-
Alumina production changes since the last quarter
- Global refinery production and capacity 2021-2032
- Asia
- India
- Indonesia
- China
- Europe
- Latin America and the Caribbean
-
Bauxite production
- Africa
- Asia (excl. China)
- China
- Latin America and the Caribbean
- Oceania
-
Forecasting methodology
- Project Classification
- Supply disruptions
- Market-driven adjustment
-
Long term price, incentive price, risks and IRR methodology
- Incentive price
- Long term price
- Assumptions used to construct incentive prices
- Risks around the incentive price
- Bauxite pricing
Tables and charts
This report includes 39 images and tables including:
- Global aluminium balance and prices
- Primary aluminium demand and capacity, 2000-2032, Mtpa
- Stock days of consumption and price
- Global supply-demand balance
- Stock days and price
- Smelter grade alumina balance
- Alumina demand and capacity, 2010-2032, Mtpa
- Global alumina balance and prices
- Global seaborne bauxite balance and prices
- Seaborne supply and demand, Mt (dry)
- Alumina incentive price, capital intensity and location
- Alumina incentive price set at US$350/t (Constant 2022 $)
- Average alumina prices, 1991-2040 and incentive price (US$/t)
- Main changes in aluminium production since the previous quarter
- Regional aluminium smelter production capability – Mt
- Main changes in alumina production since the previous quarter
- Global metallurgical bauxite supply (Mt)
- Required rates of return by country used in the calculations
- Aluminium incentive price, capital intensity and location
- Long term price forecast at US$3000/t (real 2022 $) – Incentive price US$2400
- Average LME aluminium cash prices, 1991-2050 and long-term price (US$/t)
- Scenario analysis details
- Base case, low case and high case scenario prices
- Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)
- Changes to primary aluminium consumption since Q2 2022 (Mt)
- Global primary aluminium consumption growth prospects wane by end of the decade
- Global secondary consumption to grow by 4% p.a. to 2032
- Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q2 2020 vs Q3 2020 (kt)
- Total consumption by end-use sector
- Secondary consumption to drive future total demand for aluminium
- Non-residential construction set for a modest uplift to 2027
- Total end-use demand in Asia ex-China
- Total end-use demand in Japan
- Total end-use demand in Europe
- Total end-use demand in North America
- Expected utilisation rate of Chinese aluminium smelters, 2019-2027 (Mt)
- ROW aluminium new supply
- Europe power prices
- Regional alumina refinery production capability – Mt
What's included
This report contains:
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