Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium short-term outlook January 2019
Report summary
The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. Wood Mackenzie forecasts another year of deficit in the aluminium market in 2019. While we have downgraded global consumption growth this year, expansion in metal supply will also remain challenging. We expect Chinese output to grow below 5% and with low SHFE prices the risk is that supply could be lower. Despite the tight fundamental picture, LME prices have so far failed to react. Market focus is very much centred on the current trade talks between the US and China and the risks to global economic activity.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
-
Supply-demand balances
- Global deficit masked by weak market sentiment in early 2019
-
Demand
- China
- Asia ex-China
- Japan
- Europe
- United States
-
Supply
- Summary of December production, kt
- Changes in aluminium production estimates since December, (kt)
- Changes in global SGA production estimates since December, (kt)
Tables and charts
This report includes 31 images and tables including:
- Executive summary: Table 1
- World ex-China output plunges
- Supply-demand balances: Image 1
- Global economic growth slipping
- Chinese semis exports hit all time high in 2018 is there more to come?
- LME cash price and cash-3 month spreads
- Surge in cancelled warrants in early 2019
- Global benchmark premia
- Pace of economic activity rapidly declining
- Slowing starts in 2019 but completions should pick up
- No end in sight to decline in automotive output and sales
- Policy focus swings to infrastructure investment
- Sharp pick up in grid investment in Q4
- Japanese imports of semis
- Japanese production of semis
- EU + EFTA + Turkey exports of PSS and foil to the US
- Chinese exports of flat-rolled products into the EU
- Production of rolled products in the US and Canada
- Production of extruded products in the US and Canada
- Supply: Table 1
- Supply: Table 2
- Supply: Image 2
- Supply: Table 3
- Supply: Table 4
- Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
- Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
- Global alumina production (kt)
- Global primary aluminium production (kt)
- Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
- Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
- Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
What's included
This report contains:
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