Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium short-term outlook July 2019

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25 July 2019

Global aluminium short-term outlook July 2019

Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. We have made a further downgrade to global demand growth for 2019 and 2020. The on-going US-China trade war and a cyclical slowdown in economic activity in the US and Europe is feeding through to lower primary aluminium offtake in key end-use sectors such as transportation and construction. Higher availability of scrap is further dampening consumption of primary metal units. We are currently in the middle of the seasonal slowdown in demand and much will hinge on the magnitude of the bounce back in orders for aluminium from mid-September onwards. The signs, so far, are not promising.

Table of contents

  • China
    • Japan
    • Europe
  • North America
  • Alumina Market Developments

Tables and charts

This report includes 24 images and tables including:

  • Manufacturing activity remains subdued
  • Slight improvement in automotive market but from a low base
  • Key housing market indicators pointing south
  • North American shipments of can sheet
  • Shipments of sheet and plate
  • Replacement capacity traded in 2019
  • China greenfield smelter indicative capital expenditure
  • Summary of June production, kt
  • Changes in aluminium production estimates since June, (kt)
  • World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2018-2021, (kt)
  • Atlantic alumina demand
  • Changes in global SGA production estimates since June, (kt)
  • Lanjigarh's production accelerating
  • China refinery capacity plans
  • China refinery cuts
  • Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global alumina production (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
  • Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Japanese production of semis
  • EU and Turkey exports of PSS and foil to the US

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Data tables aluminium STO July 2019.xls

    XLS 843.50 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook July 2019

    PDF 1.27 MB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook July 2019

    ZIP 1.47 MB

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