Global aluminium short-term outlook July 2019

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. We have made a further downgrade to global demand growth for 2019 and 2020. The on-going US-China trade war and a cyclical slowdown in economic activity in the US and Europe is feeding through to lower primary aluminium offtake in key end-use sectors such as transportation and construction. Higher availability of scrap is further dampening consumption of primary metal units. We are currently in the middle of the seasonal slowdown in demand and much will hinge on the magnitude of the bounce back in orders for aluminium from mid-September onwards. The signs, so far, are not promising.