Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium short-term outlook July 2020
Report summary
The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. Our assessment of aluminium market fundamentals points to a heavily oversupplied market over the next 2 years. We expect demand growth in the ROW to decline by double digits this year, followed by a gradual recovery in 2021 and 2022. While China is currently experiencing a V-shaped recovery in manufacturing, we believe that supply is running ahead of end-use demand, leading to a build-up in inventory across the aluminium supply chain. This will dampen demand growth prospects over the next few years. Despite a minimal supply response, the LME price continues trade well above US$1600/t – driven by fund buying and a weak US$. Higher prices provide even less incentive to producers to cut and balance the physical market.
Table of contents
- China
- Asia ex-China
- Europe
- North America
- Alumina Market Developments
Tables and charts
This report includes 33 images and tables including:
- Manufacturing activity levelling off
- Automotive production growth out running sales
- Firm recovery in the property sector
- Infrastructure investment providing a big push to metals demand
- Japanese production of flat-rolled products and extrusions
- European capacity and production of aluminium automotive sheet
- US demand by sector
- US imports of can sheet
- US shipments of rolled products
- North American shipments of extrusions
- Australian smelters
- Summary of June production, kt
- India smelter monthly output
- China smelter capacity plans (kt)
- Changes in aluminium production estimates since last month, (kt)
- Alumina prices
- China alumina imports (kt)
- World ex-China smelter grade alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2019-2022, (kt)
- UAE, Bahrain and Iran non-captive alumina requirement
- China alumina restarts in July, Kt
- World ex-China smelter grade alumina balance
- China smelter grade alumina balance
- Changes in global SGA production estimates since last month, (kt)
- Atlantic SGA balance
- Middle East SGA balance
- Pacific SGA balance
- World ex-China alumina regions
- Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
- Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
- Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
- Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
- Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
- Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
What's included
This report contains:
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