Global aluminium short-term outlook July 2022 Report

Commodity Market Report 29 July 2022

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Report summary

Despite an increasingly gloomy outlook for the global economy, there were some signs of stability for the aluminium price amid heightened uncertainty over European gas prices. After dropping from an early June high of just under US$2800/t to US$2320/t in mid-July, the official cash price spent most of the second half of the month just above US$2400/t. For the time being prices will continue to be driven by further negative economic news but will find support from mounting margin pressure and the light metals’ high energy leverage.

Supply-demand balances
China
Asia ex-China
Europe
North America
Alumina Market Developments

Tables and charts

This report includes 36 images and tables including:

LME cash price and cash-3 month spreads
Manufacturing output deteriorates
Global supply-demand balance and stocks in days of consumption

Investors continue to pull back from the aluminium market
LME inventory drawdown continues
Global benchmark premia
Manufacturing activity improves on easing Covid restrictions
Property sector depressed
Downturn in private investment in H1 2022
Fixed asset investment in railways
Shipments showing signs of slowing
Chinese exports of semis to the EU
Extrusion shipments only slightly positive in June
But sheet and plate shipments faring better
Summary of June production, kt
World ex-China cuts (kt)
Global monthly output (annualised)
Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
Power price by market
Atlantic alumina refineries capacity and start-up year
Spain alumina exports
Spot alumina price
World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2021-2024, (kt)
China alumina exports, kt
World ex-China alumina balance
China smelter grade alumina balance
Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
World ex-China alumina regions
Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
Global aluminium prices and premia
Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
Global secondary aluminium consumption (kt)
Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)