Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium short-term outlook March 2021

31 March 2021

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31 March 2021

Global aluminium short-term outlook March 2021

Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. Firm physical demand, exaggerated movements of inventories in LME warehouses’ logistical bottlenecks and concerns over future Chinese production, propelled the intra-day LME price to within touching distance of US$2300/t – a level not seen since Q2 2018. While some positive market developments will be transitory, others could become more entrenched over the next few years.

China
Japan
Europe
North America
Alumina Market Developments

Tables and charts

This report includes 27 images and tables including:

As expected, economic activity moderates in the first two months of the year
Surge in generation and grid investment in early 2021
Credit tightening will likely lower construction activity in H2

Chinese exports of aluminium semis to the EU 27
European billet premia vs ingot premia
US shipments of flat-rolled products
Summary of February production, kt
Global annualised output rates
Inner Mongolia smelter cuts
China’s smelter capacity increases in 2021, ktpa
Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
Spot alumina price, US$/t
China alumina imports (kt)
World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2020-2023, (kt)
China’s new alumina capacity, ktpa
World ex-China smelter grade alumina balance
China smelter grade alumina balance
Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
World ex-China alumina regions
Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
Global aluminium prices and premia
Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
Global secondary aluminium consumption (kt)
Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)