Global aluminium short-term outlook November 2019

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. Since threatening to break below the US$1700/t support level in late October, the aluminium price has staged something of a recovery through most of November. Our view is that the upturn in prices is almost exclusively risk sentiment driven on the back of the ebb and flow in recent trade negotiations between the US and China. Despite the slightly firmer tone in the LME price fundamentals remain poor, particularly global demand growth which we expect to be flat in 2019.