Global copper long-term outlook Q4 2014 Report

Commodity Market Report 12 December 2014

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Report summary

Over the next few years, strong growth in supply, even after applying a 5% disruption allowance, will contribute further to global surpluses, driving metal stock days to peak by 2017, and placing downward pressure on prices. As the pace of supply growth declines from 2017, the market will drift towards a deficit and support an upward trend in quotes toward our long-term project incentive price level of $7716/t ($3.50/lb) in constant 2014$ by 2021.

Executive summary
Demand
- Overview
  - Regional refined copper consumption, 2000 - 2035 kt Cu
  - Total copper consumption by property, 2000 - 2035 kt Cu
  - Regional refined copper consumption – kt
- China
  - Chinese refined copper consumption - kt
- North America
  - North American refined copper consumption – kt
- Latin America
  - Latin America refined copper consumption - kt
- Europe
  - Europe refined copper consumption - kt
- Japan
- Asia (excluding China & Japan)
- South Korea
- ASEAN
  - Asia (excluding China & Japan) refined copper consumption – kt
- - Middle East refined copper consumption - kt
- Russia & the Caspian
  - Russia & the Caspian refined copper consumption - kt
- Africa and Oceania
  - Other refined copper consumption - kt
- Trends in consumption of secondary copper
  - Scrap definition
  - Scrapping rates
  - Scrap usage
  - Scrap consumption
  - Global copper scrap consumption, 2000-2035 kt Cu
  - Scrap outlook
- Principal uses of copper
  - Total copper consumption by industry sector, 2000 - 2035 kt Cu
  - Total copper semis production, 2000 - 2035 kt Cu
Supply
- Copper mine project changes since Q3 2014
  - Base Case
  - Highly Probable
  - Probable
  - Possible
- Copper smelter/refinery project changes since Q3 2014
- Disruptions
- Regional mine production capability
  - Summary
  - Latin America and the Caribbean
- Asia (excl. China)
- North America
- Oceania
- Africa
- Europe
- China
- Middle East
- Russia and the Caspian
  - Requirement for new mine capacity
- Regional smelter production capability
  - Summary
- Africa
- Asia (excl. China)
- China
- Latin America & Caribbean
  - Europe
  - North America
  - Middle East
  - Oceania
  - Russia and the Caspian
- Regional refinery production capability
  - Summary
  - China
  - Asia (excluding China)
  - Europe
  - Africa
  - Latin America & Caribbean
  - North America
  - Middle East
  - Oceania
  - Russia and the Caspian
Supply-demand balances
- Changes to the market outlook since Q3 2014
  - Monthly total exchange stocks and prices
  - Global metal balances & LME copper price (2014$)

Tables and charts

This report includes 53 images and tables including:

Japan refined copper consumption – kt
Asia (excl. China) copper mine production capability - kt Cu

North America copper mine production capability - kt Cu
Oceania copper mine production capability - kt Cu
Africa copper mine production capability - kt Cu
Europe copper mine production capability - kt Cu
China copper mine production capability - kt Cu
Middle East copper mine production capability - kt Cu
Russia and the Caspian mine production capability – kt Cu
Africa copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
Asia (excl. China) copper smelter production capability - kt
China copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
Latin America & Caribbean copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
Demand: Image 1
Demand: Image 2
Demand: Table 1
Demand: Table 2
Demand: Table 3
Demand: Table 4
Demand: Table 5
Demand: Table 7
Demand: Table 8
Demand: Table 9
Demand: Table 10
Indexed copper consumption growth - (2005=100)
Average annual global refined copper consumption - kt
Demand: Image 5
Demand: Image 6
Demand: Image 7
Base case regional copper mine production capability - kt Cu
Latin America & Caribbean copper mine production capability - kt Cu
Incremental Cu market demand and highly probable, probable and possible Cu project production (kt Cu)
Global market demand for mine output
Supply: Table 13
Europe copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
North America copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
Middle East copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
Oceania copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
Russia and the Caspian copper smelter production capability - kt Cu
Regional copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
China copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
Asia (excl. China) copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
Europe copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
Africa copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
Latin America and the Caribbean copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
North America copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
Middle East copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
Oceania copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
Russia and the Caspian copper refinery production capability - kt Cu
Supply-demand balances: Image 1
Supply-demand balances: Image 2
LME copper prices