Global copper strategic planning outlook - Q2 2024

Despite a period of above average mine supply over the near term, copper still faces a shortfall in the refined metal market with stocks in days of consumption trending below the long-term average of 65 days through to 2033. Beyond 2026, an anticipated shortfall emerges as base case mine supply begins to contract while demand growth, shaped by a combination of population growth, urbanisation, electrification and decarbonisation, remains robust. Elevated prices over the next decade should provide sufficient confidence to motivate producers to bring on the additional supply that is needed to maintain a reasonable long-term market balance and to meet the demand growth opportunities that lie ahead. Crucially, infinitely recyclable copper scrap will also need to play a more significant role over the long-term as the world increasingly focuses on circularity and the use of recycled metals.