Country Report
Global iron ore supply summary 2026
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Iron ore producers face diverging margins in 2026 as prices average US$102.6/dmt CFR China but decline from US$106–107/t in H1 to US$98–99/t in H2. Global demand remains flat at 2.21 billion tonnes, with Chinese hot metal output declining to 820 Mt while India expands to 101 Mt. Seaborne supply grows ~28 Mt, driven by Vale's improvements, Simandou's 20 Mt ramp-up, and Nimba Phase 2, reducing the Big Four's market share from 54.7% to 53.7%. At 62.4% Fe average grade, Brazilian and Canadian producers command premium pricing for high-grade, low-contaminant ore, while Australia dominates volume with mid- to low-grade material facing quality penalties. Cash margins compress below 40% at US$67.7/t average cost, favouring large-scale, low-cost operators with integrated logistics and high-grade reserves. Capital expenditure declines to US$17.2 billion as major projects reach production, reflecting a strategic shift from volume growth toward quality enhancement and emissions reduction.
Table of contents
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Key producers
- Vale
- Rio Tinto
- BHP
- Fortescue
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China
- 2026 Chinese iron ore mines cost curve (62% Fe fines equivalent)
- Chinese iron ore production forecast
- 2026 reserves split
- 2026 quality and quantity bubble graph by country
- Big four 2026 quality and quantity bubble graph
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Operating costs
- Average FOB cash cost 2009 to 2035 (US$/t, nominal to 2026 and real thereafter)
- 2026 Global total cash cost curve (US$/dmt) FOB
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Delivered costs
- 2026 Global cash costs curve, CFR North China US$/dmt (62% Fe fines equivalent)
- Capital costs
Tables and charts
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What's included
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