Commodity Market Report
Global lead investment horizon outlook - Q3 2022
Report summary
The repercussions of Russia's invasion of Ukraine reverberate. Albeit now below their peak, energy prices are still up significantly. Wider inflationary pressures therefore remain in place and interest rates are being raised in response. Increased living and borrowing costs are pushing economies towards recession, and lead prices have succumbed to US dollar strength and bouts of fervent weakness in wider sentiment. However, global lead markets responded positively to news of potential smelter disruptions in Europe due to high energy prices. We are reluctant to conclude that these will result in a notable reduction in global supply. Potential support packages that could benefit smelters have yet to be revealed, lead market pricing could yet become kinder to smelters, and any displaced raw materials could potentially be processed elsewhere. Even if refined supply isn't cut, global lead markets should be reasonably supported given the resilience of demand from automotive batteries.
Table of contents
- Medium-term forecasts
- Long-term prices
-
Risks to the forecasts
- Short term – upside
- Short term – downside
- Long term – upside
- Long term – downside
-
Overview
- Changes since last quarter
- China
-
Asia ex-China
- India
-
US
- Mexico
- Europe
-
Latin America
- Lead:zinc ratio falling from new mines
- Mine Production changes since last quarter
- Mine projects
- Base Case projects
-
Regional smelter and refinery production capability
- Refinery supply changes since last quarter
- Africa
- Asia
- Europe
- Latin America
- Middle East
- North America
- Oceania
- Russia and the Caspian
Tables and charts
This report includes 33 images and tables including:
- Table: Price forecasts and refined market balances
- Chart: Concentrate and metal supply-demand balance and price forecast
- Chart: Total stocks and long-term prices
- Chart: Regional refined lead consumption growth
- Chart: China’s proportion of total demand stabilises as its lead market matures
- Table: Regional refined lead consumption (kt Pb)
- Current mine production capability is expected to fall from 2024
- Global lead mine production capability and market adjustments
- Global refined lead production capability
- Forecast investment required in new lead mine capability
- Capital intensity of operating mines compared to Probable and Possible status projects
- Analysis of the lead:zinc mine production ratio
- Requirement for new lead mine capability
- Lead mine changes since last quarter
- African lead mine production capability
- European lead mine production capability
- Asian lead mine production capability
- Latin American lead mine production capability
- Middle Eastern lead mine production capability
- North American lead mine production capability
- Oceanian lead mine production capability
- Russia & the Caspian lead mine production capability
- Future smelter and refinery capability has been reduced with the removal of unutilised capacity
- African refined lead production
- Asian refined lead production
- Table: European refined lead production
- Table: Latin American refined lead production
- Table: Middle East refined lead production
- Table: North American refined lead production
- Table: Oceania refined lead production
- Table: Russia and the Caspian refined lead production
- Chart: High case (Scenario A) and low case (Scenario B) price evolution models
What's included
This report contains:
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