Commodity Market Report
Global lead investment horizon outlook - Q3 2023
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Cost push inflation has generated high pay settlements and wider inflationary pressures remain in place . Consequently high interest rates raised in response have increased living and borrowing costs and are are pushing economies towards recession. But state subsidies have stimulated the EV market in North America and EVs continue to increase penetration in Europe and China. OE lead demand is solid because stop start technology in ICE and plug-in hybrid vehicles continues to increase market share. Alongside robust consumption, refined lead supply is struggling to keep up and compensate for the metal being consumed that last year came from stock. Having already been weak during the first half of 2023, primary production should continue to be encumbered by mine disruption in the second half. Even with mine supply forecast to ramp up in 2024-2025, stocks of concentrate and metal are not expected to exceed long-term levels until 2026 and beyond.
Table of contents
- Medium-term forecasts
- Long-term prices
-
Risks to the forecasts
- Short term – upside
- Short term – downside
- Long term – upside
- Long term – downside
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Overview
- Changes since last quarter
- China
-
Asia ex-China
- India
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US
- Mexico
- Europe
- Latin America
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Regional mine production capability
- Africa
- Asia
- Europe
- Latin America
- Middle East
- North America
- Oceania
- Russia and the Caspian
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Regional smelter and refinery production capability
- Africa
- Asia
- Europe
- Latin America
- Middle East
- North America
- Oceania
- Russia and the Caspian
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Table: Price forecasts and refined market balancesChart: Concentrate and metal supply-demand balance and price forecastChart: Total stocks and long-term prices
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Chart: Regional refined lead consumption growthChart: China’s proportion of total demand stabilises as its lead market maturesTable: Regional refined lead consumption (kt Pb)Global refined lead production capabilityLead key forecastsAfrican lead mine capabilityAsian lead mine capabilityEuropean lead mine capabilityLatin American lead mine capability
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What's included
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