Commodity Market Report
Global lead long-term outlook Q1 2021
Report summary
The coronavirus continues to dominate the current and future prospects for lead markets, with fallout anticipated to last for years, if not decades. However, the resilience of lead demand has exceeded many expectations and will, this year, match that of pre-pandemic 2019. This is a remarkable recovery after the abrupt slowing of global economic activity a year ago. Consumption will average growth of 2.2% pa in the medium term and 2.0% pa out to 2040, chiefly driven by continued strength in the Chinese and Indian markets. Mine output was badly affected last year and will struggle to develop much momentum in the coming years, managing just 0.2% pa medium-term expansion, increasing to 0.8% pa in the long term. This situation creates better alignment between supply and demand, pulling the market into better balance for both the medium and long terms.
Table of contents
- Demand outlook
- Supply outlook
-
Market balance and price outlook
- Supply-side changes
- That old smelter story of too much capacity chasing too little feed
- Overview
- Demand in detail
-
Asia
- China
- India
- Japan
- Europe
-
North America
- US
- Mexico
- Latin America
- Other regions
-
Regional mine production capability
- Africa
- Asia
- Europe
- Latin America
- Middle East
- North America
- Oceania
- Russia and the Caspian
-
Regional smelter and refinery production capability
- Africa
- Asia
- Asian refined lead production
- Europe
- Latin America
- Middle East
- North America
- Oceania
- Russia and the Caspian
- Batteries
- Non-Battery
Tables and charts
This report includes 48 images and tables including:
- Global lead demand, 2000 to 2040
- Lead supply, demand, balance and price, 2020-2030
- Global refined lead supply-demand balance and price
- Global refined lead stocks and price
- Scrap prices only in sustained, proportionate reduction since lockdowns began
- Global lead consumption
- Regional demand changes from previous long-term outlook
- Industrial dominates with increased auto imports
- Auto replacement further declines due to imports
- European lead consumption
- Latin American lead consumption
- Middle East lead consumption
- Oceania lead consumption
- Russia and the Caspian lead consumption
- Global refined lead production capability
- Lead key forecasts
- Scenario implications for lead prices
- Chinese lead demand in auto and ebike batteries (excluding trade)
- Automotive demand now clearly ahead of ebikes
- Industrial continues to grow; auto dominates
- Strong growth in automotive, 2-wheeler and industrial sectors
- India lead demand, 2020
- India lead demand, 2040
- Asian lead consumption
- Changes in US lead demand by sector
- Auto replacement dominates
- Minimal change in demand distribution
- North American lead consumption
- African lead mine capability
- Asian lead mine capability
- European lead mine capability
- Latin American lead mine capability
- Middle Eastern lead mine capability
- North American lead mine capability
- Oceanian lead mine capability
- Russia and the Caspian lead mine capability
- Global lead mine production capability and mine projects
- Global lead mine production capability and market adjustments
- Analysis of the lead:zinc mine production ratio
- Changes to projects listing
- African refined lead production
- European refined lead production
- Latin American refined lead production
- Middle East refined lead production
- North American refined lead production
- Oceania refined lead production
- Russia and the Caspian refined lead production
What's included
This report contains:
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