Global lead short-term outlook September 2018 Report

Commodity Market Report 30 September 2018

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Report summary

Another month of decline lead price saw it briefly hit a two-year low of $1970/t before breaking back above the $2000/t barrier. LME live warrants reached their lowest for almost a decade and halted the fall in price but failed to impart any upwards momentum. The slide then continued with a huge re-warranting of cancelled stock, despite total stocks still diminishing. Spot TCs have not increased but long-term contracts will be structured to reflect likely market conditions for the whole of next year.

Executive summary
- Lead key forecasts
Supply-demand balances
- Refined lead premia and scrap prices
- Price forecasts and global quarterly supply/demand balances (kt)
Demand
- China
- US
- Europe
  - Global quarterly refined lead consumption (kt)
Supply
- Raw materials market
  - Concentrate market TCs
- Mine production news

Tables and charts

This report includes 23 images and tables including:

Supply-demand balances: Image 1
Average LME cash to three-month contango down to $14.70/t in September from $16.80/t in August
Lead price and dollar rate decouple mid September following massive stock re-warranting

Level of refined lead trade between the US and China unlikely to be affected by tariffs
Steady outflow of lead from stocks, with little heading into LME warehouses
Available LME warrants almost at a ten-year low
Total stocks continue to diminish but live warrants up sharply
SHFE refined lead stocks resume downwards direction ahead of shutdown period during tight supply
Executive summary: Table 1
Supply-demand balances: Table 1
Supply-demand balances: Table 2
Better year-on-year vehicle output over summer after mostly disappointing 2018
Shipments from North Korea and Russia have been the greatest drag on China's concentrate imports this year
Processing imported lead concentrate has been relatively rewarding to Chinese smelter during the last month
Lead mine capability, market adjustment and production (kt Pb)
Supply: Table 3
Supply: Table 4
Supply: Table 5
Supply: Table 6
Supply: Table 7
Supply: Table 8
Demand: Table 1
Supply: Table 1