Commodity Market Report

Global nickel long-term outlook Q3 2019

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Everyone is trying to ship Indonesian ore as much as they can before the end of the year. But there will be constraints in terms of mining rate, ship availability and port capacity in Indonesia, so they have to look for other alternatives.

Linda Zhang, Metals Analyst

Why buy this report?

You'll get in-depth analysis of the global nickel market, including the factors that are likely to have the greatest influence on supply, demand and price.

  • Get nickel price forecasts and analysis of the factors that will influence price to 2040
  • Get supply, demand and market analysis from our global team of experts, including analysis of how Indonesia’s ban on nickel ore exports has affected Chinese production
  • Get access to the analysts who produced this report to understand what the analysis could mean for your business.

What key questions does our report answer about the outlook for nickel?

  • How will the growth in the electric vehicle market impact demand for nickel in batteries?
  • Will increasingly protectionist trade measures affect the nickel market?
  • There is a need for 20-30 ktpa of new nickel supply between 2021 and 2026. Who will fill the supply gap?


This report comes with data sets and charts. Scroll down to see the full table of contents.

23 September 2019

Global nickel long-term outlook Q3 2019

Report summary

Indonesia brings forward the ban on nickel ore exports to January 2020. As a result Chinese NPI production rates will decrease sharply in 2021, as will Chinese stainless melt output. A cut in China may be offset by new production in Indonesia - both NPI and stainless steel. However, the spread of protectionist trade duties across SE Asia could hinder the development of a new Indonesian stainless industry. Even in Europe, duties against Indonesia may not stop with the safeguards that will now start on 1 October 2019.

Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 12 images and tables including:

  • Global nickel consumption by first use
  • Global stainless steel product consumption by end use
  • Mined nickel production capability
  • Refined nickel production capability
  • Near-term changes in refined production capability, excluding highly probable projects (kt)
  • Substantial deficit accumulating over the next ten years
  • Global nickel supply and demand - long-term structural shortage
  • EV battery share of total nickel demand in 2018
  • EV battery share of total nickel demand in 2040
  • Projected decline in Chinese NPI production
  • Chinese imports of Filipino ore
  • Near-term changes in mined production capability, excluding highly probable projects (kt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global_nickel_long-term_outlook_Q3_2019.pdf

    PDF 1.55 MB

  • Document

    Nickel_Tables_LTO_Q3_2019.pdf

    PDF 1.30 MB

  • Document

    Demand main changes nickel LTO Q3 2019.xls

    XLS 144.50 KB

  • Document

    Demand analysis nickel LTO Q3 2019.xls

    XLS 1.87 MB

  • Document

    Supply main changes nickel LTO Q3 2019.xls

    XLS 211.00 KB

  • Document

    Production rankings nickel LTO Q3 2019.xls

    XLS 63.00 KB

  • Document

    Equity Production nickel LTO Q3 2019.xls

    XLS 3.89 MB

  • Document

    Mine analysis nickel LTO Q3 2019.xls

    XLS 594.00 KB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis nickel LTO Q3 2019.xls

    XLS 431.00 KB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis nickel LTO Q3 2019.xls

    XLS 1001.00 KB

  • Document

    Refinery product type nickel LTO Q3 2019.xlsx

    XLSX 270.37 KB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices nickel LTO Q3 2019.xls

    XLS 398.00 KB

  • Document

    Global nickel long-term outlook Q3 2019

    ZIP 6.34 MB

  • Document

    Nickel_Slidepack_LTO_Q3_2019.pdf

    PDF 1.88 MB

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