Commodity Market Report
Global zinc long-term outlook Q3 2018
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Report summary
The Global Zinc Metal Market Long-term Outlook provides the latest update of detailed supply and demand analysis and price forecasts for the zinc market out to 2040. Although new mine supply and the escalating trade wars have dominated the zinc market in 2018, the fundamental outlook is little changed – stocks of metal are being depleted and are set to fall to very low levels in 2019 and remain low until 2020. Such low stocks are forecast to provide fundamental support to the zinc price which is forecast to recover from current levels during the course of 2019 reaching a cyclical high in 2020
Table of contents
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Executive summary
- Key points
- Demand – what's changed?
- Supply – what's changed?
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Demand
-
Overview
- Long-term global outlook positive
- China
- India
- Japan
- USA
- Europe
-
Overview
-
Supply
-
Mine Production
- Overview
- Africa
- Asia
- Europe
- Latin America
- Middle East
- North America
- Oceania
- Russia and the Caspian
- World zinc mine production capability and mine projects
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Refined Production
- Overview
- Africa
- Asia
- Europe
- Russia and the Caspian
- Middle East
- Latin America
- North America
- Oceania
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Mine Production
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Supply-demand balances
- Zinc market dynamic
- Supply and Demand - Base Case and Long Term
- Long-term Zinc Price Forecasts
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Scenario analysis
- Zinc price forecasts (real $/t)
- Comparison of base case and scenario outcomes
Tables and charts
This report includes 49 images and tables including:
- Manufacturing growth slows
- Global slab zinc consumption by region
- Exchange stocks and price
- Zinc metal and concentrate stock cycle (kt Zn)
- LME cash zinc prices and base case forecast 1950- 2035
- Sources of future smelter production
- Forecast stocks and prices
- Price forecasts and refined marked balances
- Concentrate market balances
- US$ Trade Weighted Index versus zinc price with TWI averages
- Zinc price forecasts (nominal $/t)
- Global slab zinc consumption by region
- The probability of global slowdown is increasing
- Light-weighting cut zinc's intensity of use in the 1970s and 1980s
- Chinese end-use zinc demand is dominated by construction
- China will dominate zinc consumption for the foreseeable future
- Demand: Image 6
- Asia (ex-China) consumption
- Urbanisation drives means Indian first use is dominated by galvanizng
- PMIs point to slower growth across the European economy
- Zinc castings production approaching pre-crisis levels
- Turkey will come to dominate European zinc consumption
- World capability forecasts by region and global market adjustment
- Mine adjustment breakdown
- African zinc mine production
- Asian zinc mine production
- European zinc mine production
- Latin American zinc mine production
- Middle Eastern mine production
- North American zinc mine production
- Oceania zinc mine production
- Russia and the Caspian
- Summary of zinc mine production capability changes
- Requirement and sources of future mine production
- Historical mine starts-ups and future projects
- Possible project changes since previous quarter
- World capability forecasts by region and global market adjustment kt
- African zinc smelter production capability
- Asian zinc smelter production capability
- European zinc smelter production capability
- Russia and the Caspian zinc smelter production capability
- Middle Eastern zinc smelter production capability
- Latin American zinc smelter production capability
- North American zinc smelter production capability
- Oceania zinc smelter production capability
- Requirement and sources of future smelter production
- Summary of zinc smelter production capability changes
- Supply-demand balances: Image 7
- Supply-demand balances: Table 4
What's included
This report contains:
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