Insight

Indonesian nickel ore export ban – implications for nickel supply

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What’s inside this report?

Indonesia’s move to ban nickel ore exports two years earlier than planned will have serious implications for nickel supply.

We consider the impact of the ban on supply and demand balances, from Indonesia and China to nickel producers further afield in countries such as New Caledonia, Turkey and Albania.

It is possible some, and ultimately all, of the lost NPI production in China could be offset by NPI production increase in Indonesia – but this will take some time.

Linda Zhang, Metals Analyst, quoted by Reuters

Read our report to understand:

  • Why has the nickel ore export ban been brought forward?
  • Can other countries make up for China’s loss of nickel supply?
  • How will the ban impact Chinese NPI production in the short and medium term?
  • Can Indonesian NPI production increases offset the supply lost in China?

04 September 2019

Indonesian nickel ore export ban – implications for nickel supply

Report summary

On Friday 30th August, the Ministry of Energy and Minerals Resources (ESDM) of Indonesia officially announced that a ban on nickel ore exports would come into place on January 1st 2020, two years ahead of the planned date of January 2022. The move has serious implications for nickel supply, particularly in China, but also Indonesia. This insight provides our initial views on the impact on nickel supply in 2020 and beyond.

Table of contents

  • Why has the ban been brought forward?
  • Current ore export status
  • Can the loss be made up from elsewhere?
  • Impact on Chinese NPI production
  • Can Indonesian NPI production increases offset the supply lost in China?
  • Summary

Tables and charts

This report includes 2 images and tables including:

  • Impact of ore ban on forecast Ni in NPI production in China
  • Forecast nickel in ore feed to China

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Indonesian nickel ore export ban – implications for nickel supply

    PDF 756.22 KB

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