Commodity Market Report
Iron ore markets - short-term outlook - February 2021
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The iron ore boom continues. This month saw the spot 62% index hit $175/t, its highest since September 2011, while the 65% index hit $200/t, just $5 below the all time high set in January 2011. Production costs are much lower now than they were in the last boom, meaning that margins are at record levels. But for how long will this bonanza last? If Chinese demand growth continues on this trajectory then we’re in for another bumper year because capacity constraints and heightened ESG risk will limit a meaningful near term supply response to China’s voracious appetite for seaborne ore. We still think supply and demand will become more closely aligned as the year progresses, but we are now coming from a much higher base. Price forecast revisions will be published in late March with the Q1-2021 Long Term Outlook.
Table of contents
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As strong as an Ox!
- Chinese steel and pig iron production – still growing!
- The world ex-China – back from the abyss
- Seaborne supply – who can fill the gap?
- If not the majors then who?
- Chinese production - high, but for how much longer?
- Can Indian government policies ease supply tightness?
- Ten year high!
- High grade premiums - even higher!
- Technical indicators
- Dry bulk freight market
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Seaborne exports of iron ore from AustraliaSeaborne exports of iron ore from BrazilProduction utilisation rate of 126 Chinese iron ore mine companies
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Production utilisation rate of different regional Chinese iron ore mine companiesIndian iron ore exportsIron ore price-monthlyIron ore price spreadsKey quarterly forecastFibonacci Retracement LevelsTubarao – Qingdao freight rateWest. Australia - North China freight rateCapesize spot freights, US$wmt, to China (Beilun/Baoshan)
- 8 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
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