Commodity Market Report
Iron ore Q2 2021 update to 2040
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
China continues to astonish the world with it’s unrelenting steel production growth – on track to comfortably reach our 5% growth forecast for 2021. But our long-term view remains largely unchanged; Chinese pig iron production peaks in 2022 before a gradual decline as the economy transitions from investment to consumption and scrap displaces pig iron in the metallics mix. Iron ore supply risks continue to revolve around heightened ESG related compliance and a drive towards higher grade (lower impurity) feedstock. Both have potential to disrupt supply and push up costs. Forecast revisions with this update result in a tighter seaborne market and a significant upward revision to medium term price forecasts. The longer-term outlook hinges on environmental and productivity factors, with suppliers of high-grade iron ore suitable for pelletising and direct reduction best positioned to benefit from the new “green steel” technologies that will be scaled up over the next few decades.
Table of contents
- What’s changed since Q1 2021?
- Price forecast revisions
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Iron Ore Definitions and Value Chain
- Characteristics of Saleable Iron Ore Products
- Iron Ore Value Chain
- Australia
- Brazil
- China
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India
- Indian reserves and production
- Key Indian producers
- Indian policy framework
- Africa
- Canada
- Russian Federation/Ukraine/Kazakhstan
- Sweden
- Chile
- 3 more item(s)...
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Price forecast: iron ore's (unexpected) second peak!Implied Global Balance
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Cash cost curveIron ore grade comparisonFigure 1 Iron ore size depictions depicts lump ore, sinter feed, and pellet feed for visual reference.Figure 2. The Iron Ore Value ChainFigure 3. Agglomerated productsFigure 4. The blast furnace / basic oxygen furnace method (BF-BOF)Figure 5. Direct-reduced iron / electric arc furnace method (DRI/EAF)
What's included
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