Iron ore Q2 2021 update to 2040 Report

Commodity Market Report 22 June 2021

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Report summary

China continues to astonish the world with it’s unrelenting steel production growth – on track to comfortably reach our 5% growth forecast for 2021. But our long-term view remains largely unchanged; Chinese pig iron production peaks in 2022 before a gradual decline as the economy transitions from investment to consumption and scrap displaces pig iron in the metallics mix. Iron ore supply risks continue to revolve around heightened ESG related compliance and a drive towards higher grade (lower impurity) feedstock. Both have potential to disrupt supply and push up costs. Forecast revisions with this update result in a tighter seaborne market and a significant upward revision to medium term price forecasts. The longer-term outlook hinges on environmental and productivity factors, with suppliers of high-grade iron ore suitable for pelletising and direct reduction best positioned to benefit from the new “green steel” technologies that will be scaled up over the next few decades.

What’s changed since Q1 2021?
Price forecast revisions
Iron Ore Definitions and Value Chain
- Characteristics of Saleable Iron Ore Products
- Iron Ore Value Chain
Australia
Brazil
China
India
- Indian reserves and production
- Key Indian producers
- Indian policy framework
Africa
Canada
Russian Federation/Ukraine/Kazakhstan
Sweden
Chile
Peru
Introduction:
Methodology:

Tables and charts

This report includes 10 images and tables including:

Price forecast: iron ore's (unexpected) second peak!
Implied Global Balance

Cash cost curve
Iron ore grade comparison
Figure 1 Iron ore size depictions depicts lump ore, sinter feed, and pellet feed for visual reference.
Figure 2. The Iron Ore Value Chain
Figure 3. Agglomerated products
Figure 4. The blast furnace / basic oxygen furnace method (BF-BOF)
Figure 5. Direct-reduced iron / electric arc furnace method (DRI/EAF)