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Iron ore: ten points to watch out for in 2014

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Report summary

In this note we take a step back from the big global themes and focus on ten iron ore specific issues that we believe warrant attention in 2014: China’s environmental challenge; price responsiveness of Chinese iron ore production; return of the quality premium ; corporate strategy; funding risk; technical risk; shale gas; west Africa; Indian exports; Iranian exports.

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Table of contents

    • Risk 1: China’s environmental challenge – a serious threat to iron ore?
    • Risk 2: The price responsiveness of Chinese iron ore production.
    • Risk 3: Return of the “quality premium” – positive for suppliers of lump and pellet, but for how long?
    • Risk 4: Corporate strategy – will the majors stick with their quest for value not volume?
    • Risk 5: Funding – where’s the money coming from?
    • Risk 6: Technical and cost challenges associated with potential new sources of concentrate supply.
    • Risk 7: Shale gas - its impact on DRI and DR-pellets.
    • Risk 8: West Africa – losing its “game-changer” status.
    • Risk 9: Indian exports – government policy holds the key.
    • Risk 10: Iran – have exports peaked?

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