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7 Pages

Market impact of Sherwin closure and Alpart restart


Market impact of Sherwin closure and Alpart restart

Report summary

Sherwin Alumina filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in January this year and planned to continue operating its plant during the financial restructuring. Just 10 days before bankrupt Sherwin issued a WARN act notice that alerted employees to the possibility of closure by September, UC Rusal announced the sale of its 1.65Mt/a Alpart refinery in Jamaica to China’s JISCO.  The expected restart of Alpart suggests excess ROW alumina supply and lower prices, posing added risks to Sherwin’s already difficult survival path.

Should Sherwin close in September and Alpart begin its ramp-up in Q2 2017, the SGA market would be solidly in deficit of about 554kt in Q4. The Sherwin output loss could be replaced tonne-for-tonne by a restarted Alpart operation. However, a two-year supply gap is likely, thanks to the timing between the two events and risk factors associated with any planned restart.


What's included?

This report includes 1 file(s)

  • Market impact of Sherwin closure and Alpart restart PDF - 323.31 KB 7 Pages, 2 Tables, 3 Figures

Description

This Metals Insight report highlights the key issues surrounding this topic, and draws out the implications for those involved.

For industry participants and advisors who want to look at the trends, risks and issues surrounding this topic, this report gives you an expert point of view to help inform your decision making.

Our analysts are based in the markets they analyse and work with high-quality proprietary data to provide consistent and reliable insight.

We provide unique in-depth analysis of the metals supply industry so you can make confident strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Introduction
    • Recent history of falling SGA demand and capacity creation
      • ROW smelter curtailments 2014-2016 (kt)
    • Key 2016 developments
    • Conclusion

In this report there are 5 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Introduction
    • China’s SGA requirement, production and deficit 2000-2016
    • Spot alumina prices, (fob US$/t)
    • Market impact of Sherwin closure and Alpart restart: Table 1
    • Global C1 alumina cash cost curve 2016
    • Rest of World alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2015-2018, (kt)
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