Perspectives - metals and mining - February 2025

Metals markets should be enjoying the benefit of loosening monetary policy and a rebound in industrial production growth this year, but the looming tariff war is undermining confidence, and darkening the outlook. There is a risk that, as prices for imported goods rise in the US and elsewhere, demand will suffer. The impact on China is particularly important given the existing capacity overhang through the battery and renewable power value chains. While highly uncertain, we expect tariffs to be used to obtain non-economic concessions, with negotiations reducing the overall impact on trade. There is enough positivity to see spot prices rise for battery raw materials and bulks this year, but the upside will be limited. Meanwhile, base metals should hold onto gains as mine supply restricts the build out of refined metal stocks.