Rusal sanctions throw the aluminium market into turmoil Report

Insight 19 April 2018

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Report summary

On 6th April the Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC), a department of the US Treasury imposed sanctions on seven Russian oligarchs and 17 senior government officials. The directive cited the annexation of Crimea and aggression towards Ukraine, support of the Syrian President and “malicious” cyber activities across the globe as the reasons for the sanctions. Swept up in the sanctions net was Oleg Deripaska and UC Rusal (Rusal), as well as En+ Group, which holds a 48% stake in Rusal. This latest event follows hot on the heels of multiple US trade actions under Section 232 and 301, and on Chinese foil and common alloy sheet imports. The impact on the aluminium market could be a game changer. We explore some of the key questions and possible solutions to the current unprecedented even.

Rusal’s global aluminium footprint is significant
Sanctions will impact all major consuming markets
What are the options to feed the market with metal?
Regional premia will drive the reshuffle of global primary aluminium trade flows
How high is high for LME prices?
Rusal: Too big to fail?

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

Rusal ownership and 2017 production of bauxite mines and alumina refineries
Rusal ownership and 2017 production of aluminium smelters and value added products (VAPs)
Russian primary aluminium exports in 2017
Primary ingot trade arbitrage with China