Commodity Market Report
Steel Market Service - Q3 2021 Outlook to 2035
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Tides are turning in 2021 as Chinese demand remains subdued and ROW steams ahead. 1) Has Chinese consumption peaked yet? How swift will the fall be? 2) Do emerging economies like India have enough potential to counter the demand loss from China? 3) How will steelmaking evolve in a decarbonising world and what will be its impact on metallics demand? The steel market long-term outlook provides detailed supply and demand analysis and price forecasts for the steel market out to 2035. The latest dataset upto 2050 is available now on the Wood Mackenzie portal.
Table of contents
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Long-term demand outlook remains subdued
- Broad-based recovery in 2021; China to stay flat on high base
- Demand growth to slow over the longer term
-
Global supply to rise 0.5% annually till 2035
- China slows in 2021, green shoots emerge across RoW
- India and Southeast Asia to lead in the long term, Chinese output will fall
- Evolving decarbonisation goals to alter steelmaking methods
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China
- Demand
- Medium-term demand: consumption to plateau to 2022 before sliding down
- Long-term demand: weak demographics make ideal case for demand to decline
- Supply
- 2021 crude steel production to grow at 2% year-on-year
- Medium term: metallics share to shift with increased focus on scrap use in steelmaking
- Long term: DRI production to ramp up
-
India
- Demand
- Steel demand to rise 10% year-on-year but remain below pre-pandemic levels
- Medium-term demand to be driven by construction sector
- Evolving demographics and low penetration offer tremendous growth opportunities for India
- Supply
- Second Covid wave failed to impact steel supply drastically
- Indian integrated steel players to go big on capacity expansions
- Green steel to make inroads but BOF will remain dominant technology in the long term
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Japan and South Korea
- Demand
- Japan
- Steel to partially recover from COVID-19 impact
- Long-term prospects remain weak
- South Korea
- South Korea continues to outperform Japan
- Automobile and shipbuilding to lead in the medium term
- Growth to falter over long term
- 5 more item(s)...
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Southeast Asia
- Steel demand to rebound 6% in 2021 after a dismal 2020
- Bullish long-term prospects on strong fundamentals
- Infrastructure thunder grips the region
- Housing and automotive production to offer support
- Rising domestic steel output will counter imports
- Rise in BOF output will support hot metal; growth in scrap and DRI to accelerate post 2035
- Shift away from blast furnaces accelerates in the late 2030s
-
Turkey
- Steel demand turns a corner
- Supported by exports, Turkish production has fared well
-
Middle East
- Steel demand revived in 2020, growth outlook modest
-
Iran
- Steel on a modest growth trajectory
- Iran to exceed 55Mt steel capacity target by 2025, growth in exports to slow
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Saudi Arabia and UAE
- Investments in construction to support steel consumption
- North Africa
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Egypt
- Demand rebounds post lifting of construction ban
- Steel production aided by import safeguards
- 8 more item(s)...
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Demand growth by region
- Global steel production outlook: EAF share to rise
- Regional steel production outlook (2020-2035)
- Crude steel production forecast changes
- Apparent steel consumption forecast changes
- Southeast Asia: demand outlook by country
- Vietnam and Indonesia to expand demand share
- Middle East: steel consumption outlook
- EAF to remain the dominant route
- Steel output to rise at a 2.5% CAGR till 2035
- 65 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
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