Commodity Market Report
Steel markets - long-term outlook - Q1 2021
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Globally, steel markets flat-lined in 2020 - zero supply and demand growth. In China, of course, expansion continued - demand grew by 11%. But pandemic induced shutdowns in the rest-of-the-world offset those gains. Three questions now need answering: 1) Can China keep growing? 2) How long will the ROW recovery take? 3) In an increasingly environmentally concious world, does emissions-intensive steelmaking have a future? The Global steel market long-term outlook provides detailed supply and demand analysis and price forecasts for the steel market out to 2040.
Table of contents
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Zero supply and demand growth for 2020
- How long will the recovery take?
- China: What recovery?
- The RoW
- Other contributors to global growth – big rates, but smaller tonnages
- Limited demand growth potential elsewhere
- 2020 marks an acceleration in the shift towards greener steelmaking
- Long-term price forecast
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Supply
- 1) Growers
- 2) Adapters
- 3) Stagnaters
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China
- 2020-2025: upward revision
- China’s 14th five-year plan: quality over quantity
- What does the 14th five-year plan mean for Chinese steel demand?
- Property: increased opportunities for non-residential construction in medium term
- Infrastructure: demand to shift from traditional infrastructure to new infrastructure
- Manufacturing: uptick coming despite expected decline in manufacturing GDP
- Long- term steel demand: weakening demographics will cause slide; auto will be the only sector to see demand growth
- Supply: 2021 to be another growth year for production, albeit a marginal rise
- 1 more item(s)...
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India
- Demand
- Supply
- Japan and South Korea
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Japan
- Coronavirus permanently dents steel industry
- Demand to rebound slightly from 2020 lows but will fail to breach 2019 level
- Long-term prospects appear weak
- Steel supply to be restricted by shutting blast furnaces
- Traction on steel decarbonisation
-
South Korea
- South Korea outperformed Japan in the pandemic year
- 2021 steel output to near 2019 level; domestic demand to revive
- Construction and shipbuilding to lead in the near term
- Growth to falter over long term
- POSCO leads the green steel initiative
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Southeast Asia
- Southeast Asian steel demand fell 6% year-on-year in 2020
- Few countries evaded the pandemic impact
- Demand prospects remain strong
- Infrastructure will be the growth engine
- Other end-use segments to lend support
- Steel production to grow amid rising integrated capacities and import curbs
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EU and the UK
- Automotive
- Construction
- Trade and the macro-economy
- European steelmaking is evolving, slowly, to bring down emissions
- Falling production is bringing down emissions in the near term
- Steelmakers will have to act to limit future emissions
-
Turkey
- Steel demand is fragile
- Supported by exports, Turkish production has fared better
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Middle East
- Steel demand to rebound in 2021; modest rise expected in near term
- Growth to moderate over long term
-
Iran
- Steel demand defies US sanctions
- Iran to near 55 Mt capacity target by 2025, steel output and exports to spur
- 10 more item(s)...
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Crude steel production: Japan and South KoreaJapan’s steel capacity to shrink by 2040Southeast Asia: demand outlook by country
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Vietnam and Indonesia to expand their shareMiddle East: steel consumption outlookCrude steel production rising modestly to 2040North Africa: steel consumption outlook to 2040Rising steel output to limit semi importsRussian Federation National projects: investment shares by sectorRussian exports should increase to close the emerging global supply gap after 2030US steel trade with Mexico and CanadaUS vehicle trade with Mexico and Canada
- 30 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
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