Commodity Market Report
Steel markets - long-term outlook - Q3 2020
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The coronavirus pandemic has accelerated the shift towards greener steelmaking technologies. In the long-term, as the engine of global steel demand growth shifts from China to India – and European environmental concerns grow – how will steelmaking technology evolve? In China, scrap based EAF production will take an increasing share of the market. India's demand growth will be supplied by additional integrated BF-BOF facilities. Europe is leading the way with emissions free steel production technology. The Middle East and North Africa has scope to raise DRI production. The Global steel market long-term outlook provides detailed supply and demand analysis and price forecasts for the steel market out to 2040.
Table of contents
- 2020: China in a world of its own
- How long will the recovery take?
- 2020 marks an acceleration in the shift towards greener steelmaking
- Long-term price forecast
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Steelmakers are in for a rough ride this year. But what awaits those that survive?
- China – peak steel demand in 2020?
- Houses are for living in
- China will produce over one billion tonnes of crude steel this year
- Can India be the new engine of global growth?
- Other contributors to global growth – big rates, but smaller tonnages
- Limited demand growth potential elsewhere
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Supply
- Growers
- Adapters
- Stagnaters
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China
- 2020-2025: upward revision
- Construction boosts another steel boom
- Entering the steel demand peak zone
- Crude steel production will surge above 1 Bt
- Long term: gradual contraction to 2040 and beyond
- Transportation will be the only positive growth sector in the long term
- BF-BOF will remain the dominant steelmaking route
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India
- Demand
- Downward revision in construction sector demand
- but infrastructure sector demand will grow at a faster pace in the medium term
- Automotive sector reviving, with robust long-term outlook
- Supply
- Japan
- South Korea
- Indonesia and Vietnam
- Rest of Southeast Asia
- 12 more item(s)...
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Global steel demand - including China where demand is set to grow - to fall by 5% this yearbut a 15% contraction is more severe for the world ex-ChinaASEAN steel demand by country
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Integrated steel projects across South-east Asian countriesLocations of the projectsIran's steelmaking metallics balanceMiddle East steel demand by countryTraditionally around 10% of global semis exports go to North Africa but exporting to the region has become increasingly difficultwith the region potentially adding as much as 8Mtpa of capacity. In 2020 Africa will take just 7% of global semis trade.US steel trade with Mexico and CanadaUS vehicle trade with Mexico and CanadaBrazil steel production and trade
- 28 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
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