Steel short-term outlook July 2023

Global crude steel production in June remained stable year-on-year as a double-digit fall in the Western countries was balanced by higher output in China and India. On the demand front, Chinese property markets continued to remain sluggish. Europe and America continued to reel under macroeconomic pressure and low business confidence. India bucked the trend with a 19% year-on-year rise in demand. Subsequently, prices stayed flat this month amid a stagnant market and stable steelmaking costs. We do not expect any improvement to this situation in the coming months as the weak steel demand will likely remain until Q4 – pressurising steel prices in the coming quarter. However, there are hopes of a mild demand revival in China driven by the recently announced stimulus. Also, Indian demand will likely regain as the monsoon recedes in September – supporting Asian steel prices in Q3.