Steel short-term outlook June 2021 Report

Commodity Market Report 30 June 2021

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Report summary

China steel demand is sliding as it enters the seasonally weak quarter. Steel production is going strong but there are signs of tightening. Chinese prices are capped before the “golden September” demand rush. EU prices have slowed but are not yet plummeting. US prices are still crazy hot. Also in this month’s short-term outlook: • What is helping US flats producers make such high margins? • What will be the impact of the EU extending safeguarding quotas? • How has the second Covid wave impacted India? • How are Japan and South Korea’s steel industries recovering?

China
- Construction: seasonally weakening, less speculative activity
- Manufacturing: short- term demand remains supported despite inflation concerns
- Supply remained strong in June but is showing signs of topping out
- Mill margins contracting sharply, likely to result in weaker steel supply
- Market outlook
US
- Lingering semiconductors’ shortage sends auto production to limbo
- Steel/scrap price mismatch: new striking times for steelmakers’ margins
EU and UK
- Supply
- Why has price growth decelerated?
- Prices must ease, but might not plummet in Q3:
- What is next?
India
- Demand is back on its feet thanks to construction sector
- Construction: steaming ahead
- Manufacturing: faltered on pandemic-induced restrictions and weak consumer sentiment
- Auto: plant shutdowns hit production
- Steel production supported by strong exports
- How does the next quarter look?
Japan and South Korea
- Construction
- Automotive
- Manufacturing
Vietnam
- Steel demand continues its relentless stride upwards
- A shift in trade pattern on the anvil
Indonesia
- Domestic steel mills emerge on top, but imports resist the fall
- Finished steel imports and semis exports look bullish
- Iron ore
- Coal
- Scrap

Tables and charts

This report includes 17 images and tables including:

Crude steel production growth
Macro outlook performance
End-use indicators

CISA 10-day run-rate keep upbeating
Tangshan blast furnace rates dropping
Steel inventory starts to pick up in June
Rebar demand seeing seasonal fall
Total EU crude steel output is well above last year and tracking above five year averages.
EU & UK hot metal production
Despite 4x higher Covid-19 cases during second wave, impact on Indian apparent finished steel demand was much milder
Consumer confidence index worsened
Outstanding vehicle loans declined
Crude steel production
Finished steel imports and Semis exports
Crude steel production forecast
Indonesian steel trade dynamics
End-use indicators