Steel short-term outlook June 2023

World steel production fell by 4% year-on-year in May, as most regions showed production declines, with the continued exception of India. China’s sluggish property market continues to weigh on demand, with the outlook remaining bearish unless strong policies boost the sector in H2-2023. In the West, weak macro fundamentals, subdued investor and consumer confidence, high inflation, and rising interest rates are dampening investment in steel-intensive industries. The European construction sector remains particularly weak. As most Asian countries enter the rainy season in the coming months, exports and domestic demand will be subdued, weighing on domestic production. Year-on-year prices declined globally in June and will remain subdued in the coming months, until demand makes a solid recovery. Downside risks to our forecasts remain, with no end in sight for the Russia/Ukraine war and uncertainty around the Chinese property market. Please read our short-term outlook for more details.