Steel short-term outlook November 2023

Global crude steel production increased by 1% year-on-year in October. The growth was led by India, with a robust rise in production, while demand in China and the EU fell. Chinese steel demand is estimated to fall by 5% in October despite the market optimism that followed the government stimulus announcement. As China enters winter season, we expect construction activities to slow down and keep demand restricted. Production is also likely to stay constrained owing to emission controls. However, a broad output cut is not anticipated, given China’s determination to boost GDP growth. Pre-election spending will cause Indian steel demand to end in 2023 with a 15% y-o-y growth. Continued impetus on infrastructure development will maintain demand momentum in 2024. Contrastingly, high interest rates and weak economy will continue to pressure European steel demand for the rest of 2023 and early 2024. Next year, demand recovery across regions will cause a soft revival in global steel demand.