Name: The return of Indian iron ore exports - blip or trend?
Brand: Wood Mackenzie
SKU: 68136
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Author: Wood Mackenzie

Insight 08 June 2017

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            <h3 class="mega store_featured_content_extrabold store_font_black">Report summary</h3>
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India has always been an opportunistic exporter of iron ore and has shown this once again with its swift return to the seaborne market in response to higher prices. Having been completely marginalised in 2014/15, Indian exports surged to over 20 million tonnes in 2016. Exports gathered momentum in Q1-17 and many commentators have suggested last year's total will be exceeded in 2017. We disagree. There's more to this story than meets the eye. India's low iron high alumina ore is being heavily discounted in the Chinese market to the point where realised prices are now at or below cash costs for many shippers. A trade that worked well at $85/t CFR (Q1-17 average price for 62% Fe fines) looks far less compelling at sub-$60/t CFR (our forecast for H2-17). After stabilising around 20 million tonnes in 2017, we believe Indian iron ore exports will decline over the next two years and could disappear entirely by 2020.</div>
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                    <h3 class="alpha push-half--bottom">Table of contents</h3>

<li class="list__item-toggle font-semibold">
        Executive Summary
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<li class="list__item-toggle">
        <a href="#9dfcaa34-7881-4a43-9739-d3bba31ba5e4" class="js-toggle-local list__link-toggle dark-link font-semibold" role="button" aria-controls="9dfcaa34-7881-4a43-9739-d3bba31ba5e4" aria-expanded="false">
            Indian iron ore supply – resource rich, investment poor
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        <ul id="9dfcaa34-7881-4a43-9739-d3bba31ba5e4" class="panel-toggle push-half--left push-half--bottom">
                <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        Structure of supply
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    <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        Production – recent trends and outlook
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<li class="list__item-toggle font-semibold">
        Indian iron ore consumption – great potential, poor track record
    </li>

<li class="list__item-toggle font-semibold">
        Exports – here today gone tomorrow?
    </li>

<li class="list__item-toggle font-semibold">
        Indian iron ore costs – burdened by transport and tax
    </li>

<li class="list__item-toggle font-semibold">
        Conclusion – the only way is down
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<h3 class="alpha push-half--bottom">Tables and charts</h3>

<p class="push-half--bottom">This report includes the following images and tables:</p>

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         <li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Chart 1: Chinese imports from India – on the rise but for how long?</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Chart 2: Indian ore is being heavily discounted in the Chinese market.</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Chart 5: The rise and fall (and rise again) of Indian exports.</li>
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            <li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Chart 6: Indian exports by port.</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Chart 7: Discount for Indian 58% Fe versus Pilbara Blend fines.</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Chart 8: Indian cost curve, non-captive mines, unadjusted for impurities.</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Chart 3: Production by type.</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Chart 4: Production by state.</li>
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<h3 class="alpha push-half--bottom ">What's included</h3>
<p class="push-half--bottom ">This report contains:</p>
<ul class="list"><li class="list__item-icon push-half--bottom"><svg class="list__image-icon" width="13.9" height="17.2" viewBox="0 0 13.9 17.2"><title>Document</title><g fill="#232323"><path d="M13.8 3.5L10.3.2c-.1-.2-.2-.2-.3-.2H1.5C.7 0 0 .7 0 1.5v14.2c0 .8.7 1.5 1.5 1.5h10.9c.8 0 1.5-.7 1.5-1.6V3.8c0-.1 0-.2-.1-.3zm-3.4-1.8l1.7 1.6h-1.7V1.7zm2 14.4H1.5c-.2 0-.5-.2-.5-.5V1.5c0-.2.3-.5.5-.5h7.8v2.9c0 .2.2.5.5.5h3.1v11.3c0 .2-.2.4-.5.4z"></path><path d="M11.1 6.3H3.7c-.2 0-.5.2-.5.5s.2.5.5.5H11c.3 0 .6-.2.6-.5s-.3-.5-.5-.5zM11.1 12.6H3.7c-.2 0-.5.2-.5.5 0 .2.2.5.5.5H11c.3 0 .6-.2.6-.5-.1-.3-.3-.5-.5-.5zM3.7 10.4H11c.3 0 .6-.2.5-.5 0-.2-.2-.5-.5-.5H3.6c-.2 0-.5.2-.5.5 0 .2.2.5.6.5z"></path></g></svg>
<p class="font-regular" >The return of Indian iron ore exports - blip or trend?</p>
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                        <time class="delta store_featured_content_extrabold">04 July 2017</time>
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<p class="gamma store_landing__body off-black font-regular push-half--bottom">Indian iron ore exports are unlikely to remain in the market as prices fall below US$60/tonne.</p>

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