China's flat steel production is now vulnerable to downside risks. Increasing demand in manufacturing is unlikely to offset the long-term decline of the construction sector. Somewhat unexpectedly, our sector-by-sector analysis shows that flat steel demand will decline faster than long product demand, mainly as demand for flat products is exposed to some of the construction subsectors with the worst outlook. Additionally, flat steel production will lose the support of exports, expected to fall sharply in the medium term. This insight is part of an ongoing project to expand the coverage of our Steel Market Service to include flat products. The insight complements our sector-by-sector approach to steel demand in China. Thanks to this expansion, we can now link demand by sector and by steel product all the way to crude steel production along the flat products value chain.